Risk Analysis of Aldyl-A Plastic Pipes

Under Development

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Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA)

Pipeline Risk and Information Management -- System Risk Modeling and Security

The project develops an integrated set of quantitative tools which provide a structured approach to reducing risk in vintage plastic pipes susceptible to Slow Crack Growth failures. An endoscopic structured light scanning tool was developed for internal inspection of small diameter plastic pipes. The data generated are synthesized with available properties such as external conditions, leak records, and historic for fitness for service evaluation. The assessment includes a probabilistic estimate of the remaining effective lifetime of vintage plastic pipe.

The integrated set of tools provides a structured approach to reducing operational risk in vintage plastic pipes. The tools provide a probabilistic estimate of the remaining lifetime and a yes/no determination of whether a short-term pressure test is capable of validating the maximum defect size in the system.

Increased Safety - This assessment will determine whether a short-term pressure test is capable of validating the maximum defect size in the system. Bayesian network methods are used to evaluate the interacting threats, investigate root causes, and predict the effect of mitigation strategies based on conditional probabilities.

Slow Crack Growth Evaluation of Vintage Polyethylene Pipes, Project DTPH5615T0007, https://primis.phmsa.dot.gov/matrix/PrjHome.rdm?prj=643